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Model: ramankrishna10/npc-reason
Source: Original Platform

prereg/PREREG.lock

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+{
+  "files": {
+    "reports/PREREG.md": "b5a49437c93e733d49d32b9078f1964bdcef29d41c1148d40f6c54d53493959e"
+  }
+}

prereg/PREREG.md

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+# NPC Reason — Pre-registration of lift criteria (FROZEN before any training)
+
+Committed in Dispatch 1, before any SFT / distillation / RL exists. Same discipline as
+BigBugAI v2: the success bars are fixed in advance so the eventual before/after delta means
+something. These bars are deltas/targets chosen on principle; they do NOT depend on the
+measured baseline values (recorded separately in `reports/baseline.md` / `BASELINE.lock`),
+so there is no possibility of tuning the bars to the baseline.
+
+The comparator for the primary bar is the base model's **FORMAT-PROMPT** number — the honest
+question is "did training add something that prompting the base alone could not?", not
+"did training beat a base that was never asked for the format?".
+
+## Metrics (all from the frozen mechanical verifier, VERIFIER.lock)
+
+- **verifiable-rate** — fraction of chains that are mechanically VERIFIABLE
+  (≥1 load-bearing `<<EXPR=RESULT>>` assertion, all assertions verify, final answer composes).
+- **accuracy** — fraction whose final answer equals gold (independent of verifiable).
+- **verified-and-correct** — fraction that are BOTH verifiable AND correct. This is the headline.
+
+## Committed criteria
+
+1. **Primary (lift).** SFT NPC Reason must raise **verified-and-correct** by
+   **≥ +15 percentage points absolute** over the base model's **format-prompt** verified-and-correct rate.
+
+2. **Verifiable-rate target.** NPC Reason must reach **verifiable-rate ≥ 90%**. The project's
+   purpose is near-total mechanical grounding of load-bearing steps; a specialized model should
+   emit the checkable format almost always.
+
+3. **Accuracy guard (no regression trade).** NPC Reason **accuracy** must not regress by more
+   than **5 percentage points** versus the base model's **format-prompt** accuracy. Verifiability
+   must not be bought by sacrificing correctness — both axes matter.
+
+   SFT passes Dispatch 2 only if (1) AND (2) AND (3) all hold.
+
+4. **RL gating (later dispatch).** The RL phase is gated on SFT meeting criteria 1–3. RL's own
+   criteria will be pre-registered at that time, evaluated against a held-out slice never used
+   for SFT model selection. The verifier (VERIFIER.lock) is the RL reward and must remain
+   byte-identical.
+
+## Honesty clause
+
+Report whatever the numbers say. A **null** — training fails to beat the format-prompt
+baseline on the primary bar — is a valid, publishable finding, consistent with this being a
+real experiment and not a foregone conclusion. The bars above are not moved after results are
+seen; if they are missed, that is the result.
+
+## Frozen references
+
+- Verifier: `verifier/VERIFIER.lock`
+- Eval set: `eval/EVAL.lock`
+- Baseline: `baseline/BASELINE.lock`
+- This pre-registration: `reports/PREREG.lock` (sha256 of this file).