{ "metadata": { "title": "Systems Thinking & Cognitive Bias Evaluation Set", "version": "1.0", "total_questions": 70, "description": "A diagnostic tool for assessing systemic literacy, understanding of feedback loops, and awareness of cognitive heuristics." }, "questions": [ { "id": 1, "category": "Systemic Scenarios", "question": "A city builds more highways to reduce traffic congestion. Over time, congestion returns to previous levels or worsens. What best explains this outcome?", "choices": [ "Drivers become less skilled over time", "More roads always create more accidents", "Increased road capacity encourages more people to drive, offsetting gains", "Public transport becomes less efficient" ], "answer": 2 }, { "id": 2, "category": "Systemic Scenarios", "question": "A company rewards employees solely based on number of tickets closed per day. After several months, customer satisfaction drops. What is the most plausible explanation?", "choices": [ "Employees forgot how to solve complex problems", "Employees optimized for speed rather than quality", "Customers became more demanding", "The software system slowed down" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 3, "category": "Systemic Scenarios", "question": "In an ecosystem, wolves are removed. Initially, deer population grows rapidly, but after some years the deer population collapses. What systemic dynamic best explains this?", "choices": [ "Deer naturally die after population booms", "Wolves controlled disease directly", "Overgrazing reduced food availability, leading to starvation", "Climate change occurred suddenly" ], "answer": 2 }, { "id": 4, "category": "Systemic Scenarios", "question": "A government caps rent prices to make housing more affordable. Which long-term effect is most consistent with systems-level reasoning?", "choices": [ "Landlords universally become more generous", "More luxury housing gets built", "Housing supply may shrink as incentives to build decline", "All tenants become long-term renters" ], "answer": 2 }, { "id": 5, "category": "Systemic Scenarios", "question": "A social media platform optimizes for time spent on site. Over time, political polarization increases. Why is this a systems effect rather than a simple bug?", "choices": [ "Users misunderstand the interface", "Algorithms were programmed incorrectly", "Feedback loops amplify emotionally engaging content", "Servers introduce random noise" ], "answer": 2 }, { "id": 6, "category": "Systemic Scenarios", "question": "A hospital reduces staffing to cut costs. Short-term savings occur, but long-term costs rise. What best explains this?", "choices": [ "Hospitals are naturally inefficient", "Reduced staff increases burnout and errors, causing higher downstream costs", "Patients become more careless", "Insurance companies change policies" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 7, "category": "Feedback Loops", "question": "Which scenario best illustrates a reinforcing feedback loop?", "choices": [ "Thermostat maintaining room temperature", "Predator-prey population oscillation", "Viral content attracting attention, which increases visibility, attracting more attention", "Random coin flips" ], "answer": 2 }, { "id": 8, "category": "Systemic Scenarios", "question": "A country subsidizes fuel to help the poor. Over time, traffic worsens and pollution increases. What systemic tradeoff is occurring?", "choices": [ "Subsidies always fail", "Lower prices increase consumption, creating negative externalities", "Citizens dislike public transportation", "Fuel companies manipulate supply" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 9, "category": "Complexity", "question": "Why are delayed consequences particularly dangerous in complex systems?", "choices": [ "They are always unpredictable", "They prevent immediate feedback, making harmful policies seem successful at first", "They only occur in natural systems", "They can be ignored safely" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 10, "category": "Holistic Thinking", "question": "A company automates customer service to reduce costs. Which outcome reflects holistic reasoning?", "choices": [ "Costs decrease, therefore the decision is good", "Automation is always better than humans", "Customer frustration may rise, affecting brand trust and long-term revenue", "AI systems never fail" ], "answer": 2 }, { "id": 11, "category": "Complexity", "question": "Which policy is most likely to produce unintended consequences due to system complexity?", "choices": [ "Updating a typo on a website", "Changing a font style in a document", "Basing school funding solely on standardized test scores", "Replacing broken light bulbs" ], "answer": 2 }, { "id": 12, "category": "System Control", "question": "Why do complex systems often resist simple top-down control?", "choices": [ "Because rules are never effective", "Because participants are irrational", "Because agents adapt their behavior in response to interventions", "Because leaders lack intelligence" ], "answer": 2 }, { "id": 13, "category": "Second-Order Effects", "question": "Which example best shows second-order effects?", "choices": [ "It rains, the ground gets wet", "A student studies and gets a good grade", "More police reduce crime immediately", "More police reduce crime, which raises property values, which displaces low-income residents" ], "answer": 3 }, { "id": 14, "category": "Optimization", "question": "Why might optimizing a single metric harm overall system performance?", "choices": [ "Metrics are inherently flawed", "People dislike being measured", "Optimization can distort behavior away from broader system goals", "Systems prefer randomness" ], "answer": 2 }, { "id": 15, "category": "Leverage Points", "question": "Which intervention best reflects leverage-point thinking?", "choices": [ "Punishing every individual mistake", "Changing incentives that shape behavior across the system", "Adding more rules to cover every edge case", "Ignoring the problem" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 16, "category": "Sustainability", "question": "A fishing community increases fishing capacity to boost income. Years later, fish stocks collapse. What was the missing systems insight?", "choices": [ "Fish reproduce randomly", "Fishing boats were poorly designed", "Resource extraction exceeded regenerative capacity", "Markets fluctuate unpredictably" ], "answer": 2 }, { "id": 17, "category": "Resilience", "question": "Why is diversity often important in resilient systems?", "choices": [ "It makes systems harder to understand", "It ensures redundancy and adaptability to change", "It slows performance", "It eliminates all failures" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 18, "category": "Path Dependence", "question": "Which situation best demonstrates path dependence?", "choices": [ "A coin flip outcome", "Choosing randomly each time", "Early technology adoption shaping long-term market dominance", "A perfectly balanced system returning to equilibrium" ], "answer": 2 }, { "id": 19, "category": "Holistic Thinking", "question": "Which framing best reflects holistic thinking?", "choices": [ "Focus only on the fastest measurable outcome", "Treat each department as fully independent", "Consider technical, social, emotional, and economic factors together", "Assume all problems have single causes" ], "answer": 2 }, { "id": 20, "category": "Systemic Failure", "question": "Why do well-intentioned interventions sometimes worsen the problem they aim to solve?", "choices": [ "Because people are irrational", "Because complex systems contain hidden feedback loops and incentives", "Because planning is always bad", "Because effort is pointless" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 21, "category": "Resilience", "question": "A system is 'resilient' but not 'robust'. What is the difference?", "choices": [ "Resilience is strength, Robustness is speed", "Robustness resists change; Resilience absorbs change and recovers", "Robustness is for machines; Resilience is for humans", "There is no difference" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 22, "category": "Archetypes", "question": "What is the 'tragedy of the commons'?", "choices": [ "A theatre play about poverty", "When individual rational incentives lead to the depletion of a shared resource", "When governments take over private property", "A failure of individual morality" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 23, "category": "Complexity", "question": "Which describes an 'emergent property'?", "choices": [ "The sum of the parts is equal to the whole", "Properties that appear in a system but are not present in the individual parts", "A property that disappears when a system grows", "A predictable byproduct of linear growth" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 24, "category": "System Dynamics", "question": "In systems thinking, what is a 'stock'?", "choices": [ "A share in a company", "The foundation of a building", "An accumulation of something (water, money, trust) over time", "A flow that changes quickly" ], "answer": 2 }, { "id": 25, "category": "Feedback Loops", "question": "A 'balancing feedback loop' is primarily intended to:", "choices": [ "Increase growth exponentially", "Maintain stability or reach a goal", "Cause the system to collapse", "Increase the speed of the system" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 26, "category": "Optimization", "question": "Why does 'local optimization' often lead to 'global sub-optimization'?", "choices": [ "Local managers are less intelligent", "Improving one part in isolation can disrupt the balance of the whole system", "Global goals are usually impossible to meet", "Competition is always bad" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 27, "category": "Complexity", "question": "What happens in a 'tipping point'?", "choices": [ "The system returns to its original state", "A small change triggers a massive, often irreversible shift in system state", "The system becomes perfectly balanced", "Progress slows down significantly" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 28, "category": "Cognitive Bias", "question": "Which is an example of 'Sunk Cost Fallacy' affecting a system?", "choices": [ "Investing more in a failing project just because a lot has already been spent", "Saving money for a future project", "Calculating the ROI of a new venture", "Selling an asset at a profit" ], "answer": 0 }, { "id": 29, "category": "Rationality", "question": "What is 'bounded rationality'?", "choices": [ "People are completely irrational", "People make rational decisions based on the limited information and time they have", "Rationality is only possible in mathematics", "Systems are more rational than individuals" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 30, "category": "Risk", "question": "How does 'tight coupling' affect system risk?", "choices": [ "It makes systems more efficient and safer", "It allows failures in one part to spread rapidly to others", "It isolates problems effectively", "It has no effect on risk" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 31, "category": "Incentives", "question": "The 'Cobra Effect' describes what?", "choices": [ "A snake's movement", "When an incentive for a problem results in people creating more of the problem to get the reward", "The fear of sudden changes", "A successful biological intervention" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 32, "category": "Complexity", "question": "In a 'complex adaptive system', agents:", "choices": [ "Follow a central commander", "Change their strategies based on experience and the environment", "Never interact with each other", "Act randomly at all times" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 33, "category": "Archetypes", "question": "What is 'shifting the burden'?", "choices": [ "Giving a task to a colleague", "Using a short-term fix that undermines the long-term health of the system", "Improving the efficiency of a workflow", "Moving a physical load" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 34, "category": "Measurement", "question": "Which is a 'lagging indicator' of a system's health?", "choices": [ "The current rate of investment", "The profit from last year", "The mood of the employees today", "The number of new leads" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 35, "category": "Entropy", "question": "What is 'entropy' in a system?", "choices": [ "The increase in energy", "The natural tendency toward disorder and loss of information", "A method for organizing files", "The speed of light" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 36, "category": "Feedback Loops", "question": "A 'virtuous cycle' is another name for:", "choices": [ "A balancing loop", "A reinforcing loop with positive outcomes", "A cycle that never changes", "A moral philosophy" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 37, "category": "Stability", "question": "What is 'homeostasis'?", "choices": [ "Moving to a new home", "A system maintaining its internal environment within narrow limits", "The study of humans", "A type of rapid growth" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 38, "category": "Complexity", "question": "What describes 'Equifinality'?", "choices": [ "All systems end the same way", "Reaching the same end state from different starting points and in different ways", "A final decision that cannot be changed", "The death of a system" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 39, "category": "Lindy Effect", "question": "The 'Lindy Effect' suggests that for non-perishable things (like ideas):", "choices": [ "They die young", "Their future life expectancy is proportional to their current age", "Newer is always better", "The end is always near" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 40, "category": "Ergodicity", "question": "What is 'Ergodicity'?", "choices": [ "A type of energy", "When the average of a group represents the likely experience of an individual over time", "The study of work efficiency", "A logical fallacy" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 41, "category": "Goodhart's Law", "question": "What is 'Goodhart’s Law'?", "choices": [ "Laws should be followed", "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure", "Everything that can go wrong will", "The simplest explanation is best" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 42, "category": "Supply Chain", "question": "In 'The Beer Game' (supply chain simulation), the 'Bullwhip Effect' is caused by:", "choices": [ "Aggressive managers", "Lack of communication and time delays in information flowing up the chain", "A shortage of raw materials", "High prices" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 43, "category": "Evolution", "question": "What is 'The Red Queen Effect'?", "choices": [ "A monarchy rule", "The need for constant adaptation and evolution just to maintain relative fitness", "A sudden collapse of a system", "The benefit of being at the top" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 44, "category": "Risk", "question": "Which is an example of a 'Black Swan' event?", "choices": [ "A predictable seasonal change", "A high-impact, rare, and difficult-to-predict event", "A common occurrence in nature", "A well-planned project milestone" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 45, "category": "System Blindness", "question": "What is 'Systems Blindness'?", "choices": [ "Medical condition", "Failing to see the structures and interdependencies that cause events", "Ignoring data", "Working in a dark room" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 46, "category": "Resource Management", "question": "What is a 'Limiting Factor'?", "choices": [ "A rule that restricts speed", "The resource in shortest supply that prevents further growth", "A negative mindset", "The end of a countdown" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 47, "category": "Causality", "question": "Which is an example of 'Circular Causality'?", "choices": [ "A leads to B, which leads to C", "A leads to B, and B leads back to A", "A leads to nothing", "Random events" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 48, "category": "Ethics/Risk", "question": "What is 'The Precautionary Principle'?", "choices": [ "Being careful when driving", "Avoiding actions that have a potential for great harm even if the risk is unknown", "Ignoring risks until they happen", "Testing everything after launch" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 49, "category": "Antifragility", "question": "In 'Antifragility', a system:", "choices": [ "Resists breaking", "Gains strength from stressors and disorder", "Breaks easily", "Remains the same" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 50, "category": "Matthew Effect", "question": "What is 'The Matthew Effect'?", "choices": [ "A weather pattern", "The rich get richer and the successful get more success (accumulated advantage)", "A religious philosophy", "The cooling of the earth" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 51, "category": "System Design", "question": "What describes 'Loose Coupling'?", "choices": [ "Components that are barely connected", "Components that can function or fail without immediately destroying the rest of the system", "A broken machine", "A very efficient team" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 52, "category": "Information Flow", "question": "What is 'The Streisand Effect'?", "choices": [ "A musical technique", "Attempting to hide information which results in it becoming much more widely known", "A famous person's diet", "A type of lens flare" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 53, "category": "Chesterton's Fence", "question": "What is 'Chesterton’s Fence'?", "choices": [ "A physical barrier", "The principle that one should not tear down a fence until they understand why it was built", "A farming technique", "A style of debate" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 54, "category": "Pareto Principle", "question": "What is 'The Pareto Principle'?", "choices": [ "All inputs result in equal outputs", "80% of consequences come from 20% of causes", "A Italian cooking style", "A mathematical constant" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 55, "category": "Competence", "question": "What is 'The Peter Principle'?", "choices": [ "Everyone is competent", "People are promoted to their level of incompetence", "The best people work the hardest", "Technology solves everything" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 56, "category": "Modular Design", "question": "What describes 'Modular Design'?", "choices": [ "A single solid piece", "Dividing a system into smaller parts that can be independently created and used", "A complex way of drawing", "Cheap construction" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 57, "category": "Recursion", "question": "What is 'Recursive'?", "choices": [ "Moving backward", "A process that repeats itself within itself", "A very fast runner", "Something that is cursed" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 58, "category": "Governance", "question": "What is 'Subsidiarity'?", "choices": [ "Giving money to companies", "The principle that matters should be handled by the smallest or least centralized authority capable", "Becoming a secondary player", "Underground movements" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 59, "category": "Reality vs Abstraction", "question": "What is 'The Map-Territory Relation'?", "choices": [ "The map is always accurate", "The representation of a thing is not the thing itself (abstraction vs reality)", "Geography is destiny", "Drawing maps is hard" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 60, "category": "Decision Making", "question": "What describes 'Hyperbolic Discounting'?", "choices": [ "Using a lot of metaphors", "Preferring smaller immediate rewards over larger delayed rewards", "Being very pessimistic", "Calculating high interest rates" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 61, "category": "Parsimony", "question": "What is 'The Occam’s Razor'?", "choices": [ "A shaving tool", "The simplest explanation is usually the correct one", "Complexity is better", "Always question the obvious" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 62, "category": "Probability", "question": "What is 'The Base Rate Fallacy'?", "choices": [ "Ignoring the general probability of an event in favor of specific information", "Measuring things from the bottom", "A music theory error", "Assuming everyone is average" ], "answer": 0 }, { "id": 63, "category": "Heuristics", "question": "What is 'The Availability Heuristic'?", "choices": [ "Using whatever tools are near", "Judging the probability of an event based on how easily examples come to mind", "Always being at work", "Thinking clearly" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 64, "category": "Social Psychology", "question": "What is 'Social Proof'?", "choices": [ "A passport", "Following the actions of others in an attempt to reflect correct behavior in a given situation", "Being famous", "Proving a theory in a lab" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 65, "category": "Psychology", "question": "What is 'The Ikea Effect'?", "choices": [ "Buying cheap furniture", "Valuing something more because you helped build it", "Getting lost in a store", "Following instructions" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 66, "category": "Psychology", "question": "What is 'Loss Aversion'?", "choices": [ "Not caring about losing", "The tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring equivalent gains", "Winning at all costs", "Losing your keys" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 67, "category": "Cognitive Bias", "question": "What is 'Confirmation Bias'?", "choices": [ "Saying yes to everything", "Searching for or interpreting information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions", "A formal ceremony", "Scientific proof" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 68, "category": "Cognitive Bias", "question": "What describes 'The Dunning-Kruger Effect'?", "choices": [ "Being extremely smart", "People with low ability at a task overestimate their ability", "A German physics law", "A psychological treatment" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 69, "category": "Game Theory", "question": "What is 'The Zero-Sum Game'?", "choices": [ "A game with no winners", "One person's gain is equivalent to another's loss", "Infinite growth", "A complex math equation" ], "answer": 1 }, { "id": 70, "category": "Complexity", "question": "What is 'The Tragedy of Selection'?", "choices": [ "Being picked last", "When short-term competition destroys long-term group fitness", "Making a bad choice", "Natural selection" ], "answer": 1 } ] }