feat: compact durable logs and refine framework routing

docs/failure-analysis-2026-09-04.md

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+# Durable log analysis — 2026-09-04
+
+This report was produced from the live `agent-state` snapshot and the monthly
+`agent-archive-2026-08` branch. Records were deduplicated by task identity before
+classification; intent rows and state-sync generations were not counted as
+independent model submissions.
+
+## Data quality
+
+- 15,178 raw outcome rows became 14,178 unique outcomes after deduplication.
+- 13,318 unique terminal outcomes contained 733 successes and 12,585 failures.
+- The hot intent WAL contained 9,213 rows, but only 1,299 unique model/GPU
+  routes. Capacity-full responses alone appeared 5,887 times.
+- The ledger contained 1,028 platform tasks. A single model can legitimately
+  produce several tasks because GPU/framework routes and retries differ.
+- Raw terminal success rate is biased downward: failures often terminate much
+  faster, while successful tasks can remain waiting/running for a long time.
+  Routing therefore uses attributable outcomes and confidence bounds rather
+  than this raw percentage.
+
+## Deduplicated failure categories
+
+| Category | Count | Share |
+| --- | ---: | ---: |
+| Ambiguous runtime | 3,067 | 24.37% |
+| Parameters/template | 2,935 | 23.32% |
+| Framework/architecture unsupported | 1,428 | 11.35% |
+| Memory capacity | 1,169 | 9.29% |
+| Platform infrastructure | 911 | 7.24% |
+| Repository structure | 725 | 5.76% |
+| Missing log evidence | 719 | 5.71% |
+| Tokenizer compatibility | 576 | 4.58% |
+| Model load | 382 | 3.04% |
+| Context length | 318 | 2.53% |
+| Architecture compatibility | 212 | 1.68% |
+| Runtime memory | 55 | 0.44% |
+| Backend operator | 44 | 0.35% |
+| Generic validation failure | 43 | 0.34% |
+| Attention backend | 1 | 0.01% |
+
+The most useful structured codes were `MODEL_NOT_SUPPORTED` (1,700),
+`EXECUTE_EMPTY_RESULT` (1,392), `PREFLIGHT_OOM` (1,166), `TOKENIZER_FAILED`
+(696), `MODEL_FILE_NOT_FOUND` (590), `MODEL_LOAD_FAILED` (382), and
+`CONTEXT_LENGTH_ERROR` (268).
+
+## Representative evidence and algorithm changes
+
+1. Capacity saturation repeatedly returned the account-limit message. This is
+   platform flow control, not model/framework failure. It is now recorded as
+   `capacity_deferred`, ends the current submission cycle after the pool has
+   tried every account, and does not enter success statistics.
+2. The platform repeatedly required a failed non-`transformers` verification
+   before accepting `transformers`. Routing now uses a vetted non-transformers
+   route when one exists and treats the prerequisite response as a neutral
+   deferred result. Once durable history contains a non-transformers failure
+   for that model, transformers is unlocked and competes normally by success
+   confidence.
+3. `PREFLIGHT_OOM` logs explicitly compare repository load size (including the
+   platform's 20% loading allowance) with available device memory. These remain
+   deterministic pre-submit blocks and deterministic queue cleanup evidence.
+4. Explicit “framework does not support model/architecture” messages continue
+   to create exact GPU + framework + task + architecture blocks. Generic image,
+   driver, storage and connection errors remain platform-neutral and do not
+   poison compatibility scores.
+5. Platform history often omits `framework`. Outcome sync now joins task IDs
+   with the local durable ledger and restores framework/task/profile metadata,
+   improving per-framework statistics without guessing from model names.
+
+## Durable-state corrections
+
+- Hot intent history retains unresolved intents plus 200 recent terminal
+  intents; older terminal attempts are gzip archived by month.
+- Community raw samples are capped locally at 200 and excluded from the hot Git
+  snapshot. The aggregated GPU/framework statistics remain durable.
+- Model/GPU official-capability cache is bounded to the 1,500 newest entries.
+- Outcome compaction starts at 1,000 rows instead of 2,000.
+- An unchanged snapshot produces no Git commit. A failed push retries the exact
+  same commit and generation instead of creating a new generation every minute.
+- Submission intent batches default to 100, reducing Git transactions while
+  preserving write-ahead recovery.
+
+These changes keep full forensic evidence in cold archive branches while making
+the hot branch small enough for quick restart and reliable server-side unpack.